Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUCAS-21 in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands from 31 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC to 18:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21

in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

31 Jan 2021 18 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUCAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	120 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (03 Feb 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)
Landfall	between 02 Feb 2021 18:00 - 03 Feb 2021 18:00 in New Caledonia

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	130 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	120 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	139	300 thousand	Few people	New Caledonia
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	157	510 thousand	10 thousand	New Caledonia
3	31 Jan 2021 12:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu
4	31 Jan 2021 18:00	130	400 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.9, 152.3
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.9, 153.2
3	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2600 people	-13.1, 155.2
4	31 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 157.2
4	01 Feb 2021 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-14.4, 160.7
4	01 Feb 2021 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	120000 people	-16, 163.8
4	02 Feb 2021 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	330000 people	-17.9, 166.1
4	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	350000 people	-19.9, 167.3
4	03 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	210000 people	-22.5, 167.6	New Caledonia
4	04 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-24.3, 166.3
4	05 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-25.8, 164.2

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Gadji, New Caledonia. This height is estimated for 03 Feb 2021 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (106 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 31 Jan 2021 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Feb 2021 21:00	Gadji	New Caledonia	0.4
	03 Feb 2021 21:00	Wapan	New Caledonia	0.4
	03 Feb 2021 21:00	Kuto	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Nang	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Inagod	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 21:00	Vao	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Wegnec St-Joseph	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Teouta	New Caledonia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Losuia	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Chepenehe	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 05:00	Mou	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 05:00	Xode	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Tingeting	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Saint-Louis	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 15:00	Plum	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 11:00	Prony	New Caledonia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 18:00	Kaala-Gomen	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Ognat	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Bouloupari	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Tomo	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Yate-Village	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Wadrilla	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Hunete	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Doking	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Noumea	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Comm. du Mont-Dore	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Nathalo	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Ouara	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Miramas	New Caledonia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 05:00	Ouaco	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Goro	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Nouville	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Doueoulou	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	We	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Havila	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Wabao	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Medu	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Eni	New Caledonia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Lahimoina	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Leileiafa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Pantava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 09:00	Nece	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 11:00	Nde	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 09:00	Tadine	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Madaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 18:00	Paagoumene	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Auneri	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Hekampan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Tagula	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Fayaoue	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Ognahu	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Ro	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Thogone	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Menaku	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Hnadid	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	Kurine	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Paita	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Griffin Point	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Bona Bona I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Mouly	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Lekia	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Tawainedre	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Rewe	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Gadaisu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 15:00	Poum	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 18:00	Arama	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 18:00	Tiabet	New Caledonia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 15:00	Poum-Plage	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 11:00	Waho	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Donuwo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	Oundjo	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Lawes College	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Apeawa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Tovai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 13:00	Matao Tiupeniu	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 13:00	Natapao	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 13:00	Epantgouei	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 13:00	Erakor	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 13:00	Port-Havannah	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 13:00	Mele	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 13:00	Sounai	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:00	Unpongkor	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:00	Happy Land	Vanuatu	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Dosip	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Loounemeloupang	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Loounimhapeun	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Laounalang	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Lowkahmal	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Lownepina	Vanuatu	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Imwareupo	Vanuatu	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Dumbea	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Mamie	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Gogsiba	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Station Ouaneko	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 23:00	Nepoui	New Caledonia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.